Post by mercury on Jun 19, 2009 12:12:28 GMT -5
THIS IS FROM NEWSDAY. FROM THE KNICKS BLOG SECTION. I POSTED THE BLOG SINCE THERE WAS SO MUCH INFO.
Hollinger's Draft Rater results (and other rumblings)Stat maven John Hollinger posted his annual "draft rater" for this year's class. His formula has been ridiculously accurate over the past six years and, quite frankly, I have no idea who has the kind of time he does to compile all of this stuff. But I'm happy to share it with you all who don't have the ESPN Insider access...
Hollinger highlights two players the Knicks have brought in for pre-draft workouts. The first, Ty Lawson, he has statistically ranked as the top player in the draft:
Two players are neck and neck for the top spot in this year's Draft Rater. You could easily guess that one of them is Blake Griffin, but most folks never would have guessed that the other is Lawson.
Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he's short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.
The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn't mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don't think Lawson's statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we've heard questions about Lawson's work ethic and injuries.
But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you're wondering about Ricky Rubio, I'll have more on him next week.)
The second is DeMar DeRozan, whom the Knicks saw on Thursday up at the MSG Training Center. From what I know, DeRozan, who worked out alone, showed off athleticism and a decent shooting ability. All the necessary skills to be a good pro. But according to Hollinger's formula, DeRozan has bust written all over him:
I'd be hard-pressed to name a potential high lottery pick throughout the years about whom the Draft Rater has been less excited. I rated 90 prospects for this draft, and DeRozan ranked 54th among them. Two of his USC teammates -- Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson -- outranked him, as did assorted other nonentities such as Kevin Rogers, Chinemelu Elonu and Ben Woodside. I'll wait here while you Google them.
Why? Because there really isn't anything in DeRozan's statistical profile that makes you think "NBA star." He rarely took or made 3-pointers, and he had a strongly negative pure point rating, which are two powerful indicators for a wing player. His numbers in other areas were unimpressive, too. In particular, he was a bad free throw shooter, which indicates that his outside shot might never be a strong suit.
Some scouts I have talked to have compared DeRozan to Rudy Gay in terms of being an NBA athlete but having a questionable motor. But that comparison falls flat, according to the Draft Rater: Gay was the top-rated player in his draft class, while DeRozan is nowhere close. And although he's supposed to be a great athlete, he didn't show it on the court often enough: His rebound, block and steal totals were all very ordinary.
As I mentioned above, one-and-done players sometimes fool the system -- they're the youngest, least experienced guys in the pool, and thus, a major factor is how much they improve post-draft rather than just how good they are pre-draft.
Nonetheless, I would back away from DeRozan if the 12 relatively safe guys at the top of the Draft Rater are still on the board.
Here is Hollinger's top 12:
1. Lawson
2. Blake Griffin
3. Tyreke Evans
4. Austin Daye
5. Stephen Curry
6. Nick Calathes
7. DeJuan Blair
8. Danny Green
9. Jonny Flynn
10. James Harden
11. Hasheem Thabeet
12. Earl Clark
Other notables: Jrue Holiday was 13th, Terrence Williams was 19th, Jordan Hill was 26th and DeRozan 54th.
Hollinger admits that last season his rating system didn't fare well, with poor marks for Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo and Eric Gordon, all of whom performed well as rookies. But between 2002-2007, it had been on the mark:
From 2002 to 2007, 15 players were (a) among the first 10 collegians drafted and (b) excluded from the top 12 by the Draft Rater. In other words, these were the college players the Draft Rater thought were drafted too high. Of those 15, not one has played in an All-Star Game. The only two who have started a significant number of games in the long term have been Kirk Hinrich (who was 13th in the Draft Rater in 2003) and Charlie Villanueva.
Who were the other top-10 picks not favored by the Draft Rater? Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Fred Jones, Melvin Ely, Marcus Haislip, Jarvis Hayes, Rafael Araujo, Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, Randy Foye, J.J. Redick and Patrick O'Bryant.
In other words, when the Draft Rater has suggested avoiding a player, that has turned out to be good advice.
What's interesting is Hollinger's top 12 includes two players forecasted to be second round picks: Calathes and Green. I am very high on Green's potential, because he has the maturity, athleticism and IQ to be an immediate-impact role player in a rotation. But I felt the same about Terrence Williams and he wasn't nearly as high. I can tell you with confidence that the Knicks will get themselves a second rounder this year. They will come away from the draft with at least two players.
Notice Jordan Hill at 26th. As far as connections between he and the Knicks, I have to insist the focus will be to get a guard, not a big. Hill is a nice player who is athletic and has a nice shooting touch. But his post defense is questionable. More importantly, there will be better players on the table at No. 8. The idea that drafting Hill allows you to trade David Lee is a major reach.
As we've been saying here all along, with the eighth pick, I think the Knicks go guard.
Still lots of chatter with a week to go and at this point it's too noisy to comprehend. We're trying to provide you with anything close to legit, but understand there are a lot of smokescreens going up now.
I'm told Stephen Curry's camp is still hoping he stays on the board for the Knicks or the Knicks find a way to move up to secure him. The Knicks don't have any workouts scheduled for Friday and, at this point, there are some players due in Monday but Holiday's name is not among them. That doesn't mean he won't get a second look.
Holiday didn't perform well in his first workout for the Knicks, so Walsh should want to evaluate him one more time if he, as I suspect, is the fallback option in case Curry can not be had.
As for the Ricky Rubio talk, let's put it to bed. After following up of the Sacramento Bee report, which was based on sourced information, the way I understand it is that the Knicks early on in the pre-draft process checked in with the Memphis Grizzlies about the No. 2 pick. It sounds like Memphis is targeting Hasheem Thabeet and not looking to trade. If they do, the Knicks don't have the assets to make it happen. So unless Curry is gone and Rubio is still on the board at No. 8, it appears La Pistola won't be in Nueva York.
Actually, the Kings will almost certainly take Rubio at No. 4. These two appear to be aligned, and perhaps the relationship new assistant GM Jason Levien (a former agent) has with Rubio's agent Dan Fegan will make this happen. Great move for the Kings, though there are some rumblings that they would consider trading this pick for an all-star caliber point guard.
Remember, follow me on twitter [twitter.com/alanhahn] for up-to-the-minute fix, random musings and back-@chas. I'm working my way to 1,000 twixers by draft night.
Also, since many of you have asked, we'll be doing a live chat here on draft day -- next Thursday.
Share: E-mail Facebook Digg Buzz up!Delicious Tags:Danny Green, DeMar DeRozan, John Hollinger, Ricky Rubio, Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson, (view all) Posted by Alan Hahn on June 18, 2009 8:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (28)
Hollinger's Draft Rater results (and other rumblings)Stat maven John Hollinger posted his annual "draft rater" for this year's class. His formula has been ridiculously accurate over the past six years and, quite frankly, I have no idea who has the kind of time he does to compile all of this stuff. But I'm happy to share it with you all who don't have the ESPN Insider access...
Hollinger highlights two players the Knicks have brought in for pre-draft workouts. The first, Ty Lawson, he has statistically ranked as the top player in the draft:
Two players are neck and neck for the top spot in this year's Draft Rater. You could easily guess that one of them is Blake Griffin, but most folks never would have guessed that the other is Lawson.
Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he's short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.
The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn't mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don't think Lawson's statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we've heard questions about Lawson's work ethic and injuries.
But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you're wondering about Ricky Rubio, I'll have more on him next week.)
The second is DeMar DeRozan, whom the Knicks saw on Thursday up at the MSG Training Center. From what I know, DeRozan, who worked out alone, showed off athleticism and a decent shooting ability. All the necessary skills to be a good pro. But according to Hollinger's formula, DeRozan has bust written all over him:
I'd be hard-pressed to name a potential high lottery pick throughout the years about whom the Draft Rater has been less excited. I rated 90 prospects for this draft, and DeRozan ranked 54th among them. Two of his USC teammates -- Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson -- outranked him, as did assorted other nonentities such as Kevin Rogers, Chinemelu Elonu and Ben Woodside. I'll wait here while you Google them.
Why? Because there really isn't anything in DeRozan's statistical profile that makes you think "NBA star." He rarely took or made 3-pointers, and he had a strongly negative pure point rating, which are two powerful indicators for a wing player. His numbers in other areas were unimpressive, too. In particular, he was a bad free throw shooter, which indicates that his outside shot might never be a strong suit.
Some scouts I have talked to have compared DeRozan to Rudy Gay in terms of being an NBA athlete but having a questionable motor. But that comparison falls flat, according to the Draft Rater: Gay was the top-rated player in his draft class, while DeRozan is nowhere close. And although he's supposed to be a great athlete, he didn't show it on the court often enough: His rebound, block and steal totals were all very ordinary.
As I mentioned above, one-and-done players sometimes fool the system -- they're the youngest, least experienced guys in the pool, and thus, a major factor is how much they improve post-draft rather than just how good they are pre-draft.
Nonetheless, I would back away from DeRozan if the 12 relatively safe guys at the top of the Draft Rater are still on the board.
Here is Hollinger's top 12:
1. Lawson
2. Blake Griffin
3. Tyreke Evans
4. Austin Daye
5. Stephen Curry
6. Nick Calathes
7. DeJuan Blair
8. Danny Green
9. Jonny Flynn
10. James Harden
11. Hasheem Thabeet
12. Earl Clark
Other notables: Jrue Holiday was 13th, Terrence Williams was 19th, Jordan Hill was 26th and DeRozan 54th.
Hollinger admits that last season his rating system didn't fare well, with poor marks for Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo and Eric Gordon, all of whom performed well as rookies. But between 2002-2007, it had been on the mark:
From 2002 to 2007, 15 players were (a) among the first 10 collegians drafted and (b) excluded from the top 12 by the Draft Rater. In other words, these were the college players the Draft Rater thought were drafted too high. Of those 15, not one has played in an All-Star Game. The only two who have started a significant number of games in the long term have been Kirk Hinrich (who was 13th in the Draft Rater in 2003) and Charlie Villanueva.
Who were the other top-10 picks not favored by the Draft Rater? Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Fred Jones, Melvin Ely, Marcus Haislip, Jarvis Hayes, Rafael Araujo, Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, Randy Foye, J.J. Redick and Patrick O'Bryant.
In other words, when the Draft Rater has suggested avoiding a player, that has turned out to be good advice.
What's interesting is Hollinger's top 12 includes two players forecasted to be second round picks: Calathes and Green. I am very high on Green's potential, because he has the maturity, athleticism and IQ to be an immediate-impact role player in a rotation. But I felt the same about Terrence Williams and he wasn't nearly as high. I can tell you with confidence that the Knicks will get themselves a second rounder this year. They will come away from the draft with at least two players.
Notice Jordan Hill at 26th. As far as connections between he and the Knicks, I have to insist the focus will be to get a guard, not a big. Hill is a nice player who is athletic and has a nice shooting touch. But his post defense is questionable. More importantly, there will be better players on the table at No. 8. The idea that drafting Hill allows you to trade David Lee is a major reach.
As we've been saying here all along, with the eighth pick, I think the Knicks go guard.
Still lots of chatter with a week to go and at this point it's too noisy to comprehend. We're trying to provide you with anything close to legit, but understand there are a lot of smokescreens going up now.
I'm told Stephen Curry's camp is still hoping he stays on the board for the Knicks or the Knicks find a way to move up to secure him. The Knicks don't have any workouts scheduled for Friday and, at this point, there are some players due in Monday but Holiday's name is not among them. That doesn't mean he won't get a second look.
Holiday didn't perform well in his first workout for the Knicks, so Walsh should want to evaluate him one more time if he, as I suspect, is the fallback option in case Curry can not be had.
As for the Ricky Rubio talk, let's put it to bed. After following up of the Sacramento Bee report, which was based on sourced information, the way I understand it is that the Knicks early on in the pre-draft process checked in with the Memphis Grizzlies about the No. 2 pick. It sounds like Memphis is targeting Hasheem Thabeet and not looking to trade. If they do, the Knicks don't have the assets to make it happen. So unless Curry is gone and Rubio is still on the board at No. 8, it appears La Pistola won't be in Nueva York.
Actually, the Kings will almost certainly take Rubio at No. 4. These two appear to be aligned, and perhaps the relationship new assistant GM Jason Levien (a former agent) has with Rubio's agent Dan Fegan will make this happen. Great move for the Kings, though there are some rumblings that they would consider trading this pick for an all-star caliber point guard.
Remember, follow me on twitter [twitter.com/alanhahn] for up-to-the-minute fix, random musings and back-@chas. I'm working my way to 1,000 twixers by draft night.
Also, since many of you have asked, we'll be doing a live chat here on draft day -- next Thursday.
Share: E-mail Facebook Digg Buzz up!Delicious Tags:Danny Green, DeMar DeRozan, John Hollinger, Ricky Rubio, Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson, (view all) Posted by Alan Hahn on June 18, 2009 8:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (28)
