Is D'antoni's 40 wins realistic or not?

[jbnewyork162]

Now that i have stepped on all the crickets that have accumulated over the last few days( ) I wanted to comment on the new prediction given Saturday by the Knicks coach. I'm a Knicks fixer; www.newsday.com/sports/basketball/knicks/the-knicks-fix-1.812055

and Alan Hahn made a valid point about last year's last 7 and 8 seeds wining only 41 and 39 wins respectively, BUT with four additions and no distractions from Marbury, and Q, Jerome James and Malik Rose excuses out the window, but still some from Curry( ), is this years team that much better from last besides on paper?

My personal opinion, and this may change by the deadline maybe, but this team equal or maybe skate out ONE extra win, from last year. We are missing a REAL shooting guard, not a washed up one(Hughes), a undersized one(Nate), and a man who is comfortable as one YET(Chandler) and that position, always overlooked by the front office is what will separate us from a strong offensive team going to the playoffs and scoring points to having 4 SF's playing all at thee same time out of position.

I know most people are going to say, we can score just enough with our squad but with Allan Houston on the court years ago, spread thee defense with his play and that helped LJ and CAMBY and EWING and even Sprewell to be more X-factor on offense.
All in all even if you have a good PG and SF and PF, if you have a bad SG and/or have a SF who is constantly playing out position in the case of thee latter being Chandler, I'm not sure we can score as well as you may think necessarily. Chandler is not a create your own show player so him at that position although it opens up other logjams at his position is not the long term solution. This is how i think Joe Johnson, no matter IF Lebron or Bosh is the first choice needs to be here. We need a true dominate SG.

Obviously defense wins championships so because D'antoni has got them playing a Lil better by looking at preseason i am optimistic about that. Just not 8 more games worth YET(that trade deadline time line I'll give it until i see proof to change my mind). Mlicic is defensively coordinated and looks to pass first which is after careful thought all u can ask for your center when there are better scorers on the team. Douglas is more defense added as well as Nate improving and maybe Jeffries. But measuring by preseason alone which i wont in the long run, Duhon has regressed and so has Gallo and Hill(from college, his aggression/passion is dormant) and the worst offender Hughes.

It seems in the first decade of the new millennium, the trend with this team is to take two steps forward and three times three steps back. And this is me being optimistic.

All in all, I hope the last year players all play on padded stats and play like they want to get an 11 mil a year contract where it benefits us in the standings and also in the wallet because we aren't going to be the fools to give them that salary(Harrington, D.Lee, Hughes, Duhon, Nate). Also the added benefit of "not" giving the Jazz a 1st overall would be nice as well.

The worst thing we can do is create the same end of game mistakes like the one in preseason with the Nets a week ago and we can maybe win 4-6 more games.

My bid high is 38 games pending a trading deadline RE-EVALUATION and my bid low is the exact same games we won last year which is 32 games. Anything more than that as of today is unrealistic, IMO this year.



What is your regular season prediction and answer the poll whether D'antoni is being realistic or not and why. Happy blogging!

-Jason

[irish2u2]

In order to win 40 games and hopefully even go over .500 a lot of players have to step up their play and right now there is no proof they are capable of doing so.

I expect Lee, Nate, Harrington and Duhon to be fairly consistent with their performance from last year.

I expect nothing out of Curry and Hughes.

I don't expect much from Toney Douglas, Jordan Hill and Marcus Landry.

I expect to continue to be shaking my head over Jared Jefferies. ; )

Three players make or break the Knicks. Darko Milicic, Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. How they play and even where they play might be the difference between another throwaway year or the Playoffs and maybe better.

We were last in the league in defense last year and 27th in rebounding so Darko Milicic has to be able to help us there by providing a post defensive presence and taking the basket away from those opponents who found it with impunity last season. He should be able to contribute on offense with his shooting and passing but just playing post defense makes this team 5 ppg better and that alone is enough to win 40 games.

We are pinning a lot of our hopes on Danilo Gallinari. The talent and skill level is there. He seems like a young man undaunted by the bright lights and pressure of NYC. If he is able to provide us with 15 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg and shoot 40% from beyond the arc he moves us way up the food chain. Are those numbers realistic? To me they are. He's young but he has had a year to observe the game and get ready. What holds him back is what holds back a lot of young players. He needs to decide to be a leader and not a follower.

Duhon is a steady PG. Not spectacular but steady and certainly with more help this year he won't wear down. What he needs is a slasher at SG who can also hit open shots. That's Wilson Chandler. If Wil can do those things plus board and play defense a hole in our backcourt is plugged with a big, athletic two way player. For once we might see an advantage most nights at this position.

Darko, Gallo and Will the Thrill. All our hopes for a successful season rest on their collective shoulders.

[ironman95]

I think 40 wins is possible, and slightly realistic. I mostly agree with Bill, the season hinges on Gallinari and Darko to a large extent. They are the unknowns. I think Chandler is more of a known quantity. Nate has to become more of a team player, and Douglas has to play well enough, to spell Duhon so Duhon doesn't crash and burn again. Helpful but not necessarily needed to make 40 wins, is that Hill get good enough to put Jeffries on the bench permanantly. Like Bill, I expect nothing out of Curry or Hughes. One is hopeless the other over the hill. d Harrington, Douglas and Nate have to get to the foul line. That will be critical. Darko has to get good enough to put Jeffries on the bench, and start so that Lee is not overmatched at center again. All these things can happen. If so 40 wins is possible. Wednesday night, someone has to stop Wade. Douglas? Chandler? A win in Miami would be a real good start to the season. Don't think we're beating the Magic, and the Celtics will be tough, but on a good night the Knicks can beat any and all of the other teams in the East. Darko has to play, I don't care if he scores one point, he has to play for his defense. Darko, Lee, Harrington(or Gallinari), Chandler and Duhon. That has to be the starting lineup, and not at the allstar break, that will be too late. By December 1st. Go Knicks, turn down the Heat!

[jbnewyork162]

While i also agree where Irish is coming from nothing i stated above is necessarily false either. Chandler is not a pure SG and on defense he can give moost Sg's more than they can handle. Its the offense that i worry about, although on paper all if not most of our guys can create it. Yes Chandler has to start there. But he is not the long term solution at that position. He is a 6'8" SF playing out of position and will be exposed when he can shoot with consistency of a true SG. That is not Chandler's game. But, since we are talking about this season he is the best we have and he will do.

Mlicic does have to start but he has to get the deer in headlights look out of his system. His skills are NEEDED but he doesnt seem comfortable as of yet with the lineup on the floor. I cant be the only one that has watched the games so far in the 6 preseason games. Time will allow him hopefully to catch on BUT there are also time when we want our ceenter to score SOME points in doubles digits to spread the wealth a bit. We cant just have four positions doing all the scoring. I hope Mlicic shows that he can imidate in his strengths which is blocking and positioning and try to at least improve on some type mid range jumper(like a12 footer or something). I want him to get easy baskets AS WELL AS defense.

With that said it DOES come down to Gallo and Mlicic and Chandler and I add Douglas to be a supersub for Duhon as one more players that will shape our destiny this season. Where these four go. Still, 40 wins as of right now i dont think so. 37 maybe at this point but i will leavee my open ended opinion on how these guys gel up until the trade deadline and either agree to 40 then or stick with what my predictions were in the first place which a explained above.

-Jason

[irish2u2]

Some real good points in this thread.

Ironman hit a couple of points I missed. We do need Toney Douglas to provide a breather to Duhon since Nate does not seem up to the job. It would also be a huge benefit if Hill took Jefferies place especially since he is a far better athlete, stronger and with a better midrange/post game.

I think Wilson Chandler can be the longterm answer at SG. He does not provide the same traditional SG ingredients that Allan Houston, Michael Redd, Ray Allen, etc. offer but he is like Stephen Jackson and maybe even Vince Carter as an athletic, tall player who can shoot well enough to keep defenses honest but also with his height and athleticism make it tough on defenders when he puts the ball on the floor and goes to the basket. We do need outstanding long range shooting and guys like Houston, Redd and Allen would normally be the guys to provide that but with Gallo we can afford to put Chandler at SG and benefit from his contributions at both ends of the court.

As in all things I could be wrong. ; )

[ironman95]

We'll find out soon enough about Chandler's defense, if he guards Wade. I have a suspicion however that D'Antoni may use Jeffries on Wade. That could be a disaster. I'd rather see Chandler guarding Wade, and if that doesn't work, then Douglas. Don't know the Heat's exact starting lineup, but I would prefer that they not give Wade anything, guard him tight on the perimeter and make O'Neal and Beasley beat them, if they can.

[greatgates]

So far Darko has not rebounded well enough nor shown the conditioning necessary for major minutes in Mike's system. Hopefully that will change. So far he has only been moderately better than Curry

[greatgates]

Oct 26, 2009 15:36:52 GMT -5 ironman95 said:

We'll find out soon enough about Chandler's defense, if he guards Wade. I have a suspicion however that D'Antoni may use Jeffries on Wade. That could be a disaster. I'd rather see Chandler guarding Wade, and if that doesn't work, then Douglas. Don't know the Heat's exact starting lineup, but I would prefer that they not give Wade anything, guard him tight on the perimeter and make O'Neal and Beasley beat them, if they can.

Whether Wade is on or not will have very little to do with which knick is covering him. We got no one that can consistently check him. Beasley is the one we have to stop.

[mercury]

The main trouble Chandler has playing shooting gaurd is his handle. He has a hard time creating off the dribble in the half court. He dribbles a couple of times and his man will cut him off and he has to pass. However, Chandler can develop a better handle. A backcourt of Chandler and Douglas is a tough defensive unit.

[ReneNYG1]

Merc I do not like Will's handle at all,if he hasn't got that by now ,well I hope he does but it's not looking good.I think ultimately Wade will be our two.And Lebron our three,I really think we have a shot to do this if we move Jeffries and Curry.

[mercury]

Rene, that sounds just fine to me.