Predictions time; Knick wins

[greatgates36]

I have virtually over predicted every year but last year. This season I go 44 wins.

[trendsetta]

Oct 18, 2021 6:45:52 GMT -5 greatgates36 said:

I have over virtually predicted every year but last year. This season I go 44 wins.

I was listening to Bill Simmons and Ryan Russillo on Simmons' podcast and they quoted some Vegas line as 42 wins-- they both went over so you may have something going there. I usually do win shares as one of the bases for my predictions, ie do the players they brought in have higher win share totals than the ones who left. I guess that means do Walker and Fournier have better win share numbers than Bullock and Payton. Then there's the return of Mitch and the potential improvement of Toppin, Barrett, and IQ.

[daglazer]

Oct 18, 2021 6:45:52 GMT -5 greatgates36 said:

I have over virtually predicted every year but last year. This season I go 44 wins.

I think 48 wins is about right. I do think that at the high end, the Knicks can reach 50 wins, but I suspect some bad injury luck will make it harder to reach that number.

[irish2u2]

Simple math.

72 games last season and 41 wins. This season is 10 games longer and at a 60% winning percentage that is 6 more wins.

That’s 47 wins.

Now add 2 key new players that address needs and weaknesses and that is at least 5 more wins.

That’s 52 wins.

Three really good rookies at the back end of the roster makes depth a huge Knicks advantage and a cushion for injuries is worth 2 more wins.

That’s 54 wins.

NOW factor in injuries especially Kemba, Rose, Robinson and Noel and while depth gets some wins injuries produce some losses BUT the Knicks two best players are very reliable. 😎 The +/- here is minus 3 games.

51 wins is my prediction. New math at its finest. 😎

[trendsetta]

The Knicks win total based on last years' record is about 47 games. FiveThirtyEight predicts either 43 win or 45 wins depending on which formula you use. Why? I don't know what their algorithms are but they are saying 44 wins, ultimately.

Here's my thinking:

The main acquisitions, Fournier and Walker, should be better in terms of win shares-- the two totaled 6.1 on their teams last season, on bad teams. I think we can increase that total on the Knicks by 1.5 to total 9.5 wins. I was surprised to see how many win shares the combo of Bullock and Payton rendered on the Knicks, however: 5.6 win shares. So 9.5 minus 6.3 (82/72) equals 3.2 win increase which translates to a 3.6 wins improvement over 82 games.

47 + 3.6 equals 50.6 wins. Call it 51. Then there should be improvement of the young players. Can we add another 4 games on top of that among IQ, Toppin, Barrett? That's 56 wins.

Now the negatives: injuries to Walker and Mitch have to be factored in because of sheer history. Subtract 3 games for Mitch (if not more) and 4 games for Walker (if not more). That knocks it back to 49 wins and I believe I am being conservative.

Then there's the factor of who has improved within the division or conference? Only the Knicks? Nope, that's impossible and unrealistic. The Celtics, ironically, will be better because Walker isn't there. Don't know how the Brown/Tatum tandem will mesh but still. So will the Pacers, Hawks, Heat and Nets have improved, right? Philly might be a tough out as well, even without that sullen prick playing. I think the rivals being better too will make it tough to predict the Knicks reaching 49 wins. How many more losses to subtract then? I'm going with five losses.

My prediction is 44 wins.

[irish2u2]

I missed adding in the improvements made by other NBA teams as a factor in my prediction. I did this on purpose because mostly I saw mostly minimal improvements while I see the Knicks as having made a major impact on their future by addressing their immediate and most pressing needs while keeping the band mostly together. The Knicks superpower is their team ethic when it comes to grinding, playing together and unselfishness on and off the court. They are a team and they are a family and the new guys all just fit in perfectly. That wasn't an accident. That's a design feature of these Knicks and exactly why I think they can win 50+ games this season. The whole is better than the individual parts.

Looking around the league and mostly in the East I don't see a lot of movement from Atlanta. Boston replaced Kemba Walker with Dennis Schroder and they brought back Al Horford along with Enes Kanter.   Chicago made the most moves adding Nikola Vucevic last season via trade and then signing Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso to go with their core players Zach LaVine, Coby White and Patrick Williams. On paper they look pretty good but health, defense and cohesiveness are issues. Philly is in turmoil with their Ben Simmons mega problem while Brooklyn somehow managed to become better despite their blowout loss last night and the absence of Kyrie Irving. Adding Blake Griffin last season and LaMarcus Aldridge and Paul Millsap this year corners the market on aging former star power forwards.   Yet all three can still play. So too can be the biggest off season acquisition Brooklyn made and that was PG Patty Mills. He may not be Irving but he can shoot as witnessed by his 21 points off 7-7 three point shooting. I even like Brooklyn's draft picks SG Cam. Thomas and C Day Ron Sharpe. 

Indiana, Orlando, Charlotte are better but nowhere near to the degree of the Knicks. I do like what Washington has done and they bear watching. They have a legitimate superstar surrounded by complimentary talent and depth. After watching Westbrook versus the Warriors last night the trade looks even more lopsided though I am no fan of Kyle Kuzma.   Toronto is another team that bears watching even though they lost their franchise player Kyle Lowry. Now Fred Van Fleet can start earning that big contract. It should be interesting to see how Nick Nurse manages all those power forward types he has in Pascal Siakim, Chris Boiucher and Precious Auchiewa. Cleveland didn't do much in free agency though how Lauri Markkanen fits in should be interesting. He's the latest dissatisfied Euro to be moved. 

That brings me to the other two teams in the East in addition to Brooklyn and likely Philly who could push the Knicks below 50 wins. Milwaukee and Miami. The Bucks didn't make any major moves. Health is their main issue while having the NBA's best player and a rock solid Pippenesque guy like Kris Middleton will put them in the hunt for a repeat. Miami to me did the most this off season. You start off with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro and that is an excellent foundation. Now add Kyle Lowry plus the possibility of Victor Oladipo coming back at star level plus more than decent depth and Miami is in the hunt to knick off Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Philly and us. 

Predicting wins in any sport is a bit of a voodoo art and obviously major injuries have a major impact but our roster as it is can be a force in the East. Also not factored is the fact that the Knicks have all the necessary components for a superstar level major trade. That could change the landscape of the East dramatically as long as the Knicks stay away from Kyrie and Ben. 

[kman414]

Considering all the thought and statistics that went into all of the predictions so far, it’s difficult to predict accurately. Thus I must fall back
to the universal prognosticator formula… The heat of the meat plus the mass of the Ass equals the angle of the dangle.
Therefore my prediction is 48 WINS.

[irish2u2]

Oct 20, 2021 15:54:58 GMT -5 kman414 said:

Considering all the thought and statistics that went into all of the predictions so far, it’s difficult to predict accurately. Thus I must fall back
to the universal prognosticator formula… The heat of the meat plus the mass of the Ass equals the angle of the dangle.
Therefore my prediction is 48 WINS.

Kman trumps math every time. I bow to your superior logic!! 48 wins it is!!😎😎