Still Can't Believe It

[irish2u2]

After so many years of playing for lottery picks and player development and watching other NBA teams play NBA playoff basketball I'm having a little trouble processing the fact the Knicks are actually in the playoffs. I'm even more excited for my brothers here who have endured so much and stayed loyal and true. 

I went back to November 30th of last year for win predictions. Most of y'all were in the 29-31 win range. I actually went with ESPN's prediction of 25 wins.   Everybody felt we were not a playoff team. So here we are 72 games later as the 4th seed in the East with home court advantage against a very good Atlanta team that went all in on making the playoffs paying big bucks for Gallo and Bogdan Bogdnaovic. The Knicks spent money so carefully they went through the season 15 million or so under the cap till they signed Luca Vildoza. It feels like Knicks management made good decision after good decision this season starting with the draft and extending to adding Noel, Burks, keeping Taj and then trading for Rose. 

I figure we can talk about the future after we see what we do in the playoffs but in talking to my brother this evening I mentioned that this Knicks team will improve mightily over the summer. Figure on 3 good young players through the draft and at least one big free agent signing. Indeed as Rene says the future is bright. And we all deserve it!! I have no idea what the Knicks will do in the playoffs but for me just being in the playoffs is way more than I ever thought possible. 

Enjoy my brothers!! We are going to be playing basketball that counts for the first time in a long time!!

[Deleted]

Wonderful post. I do have a hard time believing they keep both Rose and Burks. But I have to take Jason's advice and enjoy one day at a time.

[daglazer]

May 17, 2021 7:01:02 GMT -5 @greatgates35 said:

Wonderful post. I do have a hard time believing they keep both Rose and Burks. But I have to take Jason's advice and enjoy one day at a time.

I don't know about that GG. Rose loves playing for Thibs and Burks finally got a chance to shine here. As long as we make fair contract offers, I think that they will re-sign. Noel might be tougher. After how well he has played, he might get a big time offer that will be hard to match.

[jbnewyork162]

May 17, 2021 9:35:36 GMT -5 daglazer said:

May 17, 2021 7:01:02 GMT -5 @greatgates35 said:

Wonderful post. I do have a hard time believing they keep both Rose and Burks. But I have to take Jason's advice and enjoy one day at a time.

I don't know about that GG. Rose loves playing for Thibs and Burks finally got a chance to shine here. As long as we make fair contract offers, I think that they will re-sign. Noel might be tougher. After how well he has played, he might get a big time offer that will be hard to match.

Here's the thing. We have 60+ mil in cap and Burks, Bullock, Rose, Randle, Noel, Frank being an RFA, Mitch all have to deal with contract renewals as unrestricted free agents or restricted free agents. We have 3 picks in the first 34 picks of the draft this year PLUS if we make an extra push next year we need to add something better in the rotational probably replacing Payton or Frank or Knox in the rotation.

It's not a given we may retain everyone and improve. Someone we like may not be back because everyone will want to get paid this summer.

We might have to weigh losing multiple people or risk not having cap room in the summer of 2022.

Nothing again with what Rose and Aller and Wes and maybe Perry if he's retained, is going to be simple this summer.

[kman414]

I want to keep….
Rose
Burks
Bullock
Taj

Noel - willing to let him go as long as Mitchell Robinson can play,
But prefer to keep him.

Frank - can go or stay.

GO NY GO NY GO

[irish2u2]

Probably a little early to get into it any depth but here is what I see possibly happening this offseason.

The Knicks are still 7 million under the cap this season. 11 million comes off the cap in dead contracts like Omari Spellman, Terrence Ferguson, Jacob Evans and even Wayne Ellington. I see no way the Knicks keep Elfrid Payton so that is another 5 million. Without even half trying the Knicks are 20 million plus under the cap and even though they have two first round picks with guaranteed contracts those cap holds are low.

The Knicks have the following players as unrestricted free agents.

Derrick Rose
Nerlens Noel
Alec Burks
Reggie Bullock
Elfrid Payton
Taj Gibson
Jared Harper
Theo Pinson

Rose is a lock to come back so he won't get renounced. Taj will be renounced but he'll come back as a free agent just like this year providing he doesn't retire which is a possibility and a mitigating factor why the Knicks signed Pelle. The Knicks will likely renounce Burks, Bullock and Noel because they can resign them but they lose their Bird Rights. That gives them a lot of cap wriggle room. I believe they make an effort to keep Noel. More on how later. 

The Knicks can sign Julius Randle to an extension but he is under contract for 2021-22. IMHO they wait till the dust has cleared and then sign Randle this summer because the Knicks will be willing to toe that luxury tax line whatever it might be. Two Knicks are question marks. Frank Ntilikina and Kevin Knox. Both are young but Frank makes 2 million more than Kevin and he is in his option year. IMHO Knox stays and Frank goes. The Knicks backcourt is loaded and 8 million for a defensive specialist who plays less than 5 minutes a game is frivolous. I like Frank but I like cap space better. Kevin is still just 21 but he's got one more year and then he's on the market too. 

Leon Rose, WWW and Perry are loaded with options for free agency, trades and the draft. To me that will be the fascinating part of the summer. New York already fired off the first shot of free agency by signing Argentinian Luca Vildoza. That's a three fold signing because not only does the Knicks get the most sought after Euro PG/Combo Guard available but it also allows them to let Elfrid go and maybe either Bullock or Burks depending on the draft. It also makes Frank expendable. Where NY likely drafts in the 20's the draft is rich with guards and wing players and the Knicks didn't sign Vildoza to ride the bench. Count on Luca to be part of the guard rotation. If I were the boss I'd keep Burks. Losing Bullock means you lose a starting SF but you can also slide RJ to SF and Burks to SG or even PG because Alec has playmaker ability. New York has demonstrated a distributed playmaker system all season with Randle, Burks, and RJ as designated playmakers. In truth they don't need a prototype PG because players like Burks and Vildoza can easily play both positions. 

But the real question is the long game. We all see what Phoenix was able to do with a talented core of young players in Booker, Ayton and Bridges and then adding Chris Paul. Is that the route? Sign a still effective star player getting close to the end of their career but still able to make a difference? Or go the Utah route and develop a strong and deep core of players and then sign the right veteran. Do the Knicks hold out for a true superstar now that those type players might actually want to be here?

For the Knicks the right veteran could be DeMar DeRozan. As long as the Knicks have Derrick Rose they don't need Kyle Lowry and DeRozan is 4 years younger. Can DeRozan help the Knicks bridge the talent gap between them and the top tier teams? Maybe but DeRozan is not a good 3 point shooter and he's nowhere near the defender that Bullock has been for the Knicks. Superstar wise I see nobody leaving their present team for the Knicks. But to me that's all right because Utah has the best record in the NBA and they don't have a megastar player on their roster. 

I like where the Knicks are now but they need another scorer. They also need to hold most of the core players together. IMHO that is Rose, Noel and Burks. Of these three Noel is the most expendable but we have all seen his value this season and him and Mitch together is a potent combination. To me Derrick Rose is our veteran superstar Chris Paul like addition plus Thibs loves him and visa versa. In fact I think the extreme camaraderie on this team is a huge benefit. Our free agents may look elsewhere but the special unity of this team is a definite pull. 

So spend what they must to keep who the Knicks must and use the rest for a scorer like Norman Powell. Powell is not a superstar but he is an uber athlete swingman who averages almost 19 PPG while shooting 48% from the field and 41% from the 3 point line and he's a good defender. In fact Powell facilitates RJ playing SF to replace Bullock. I pass on Lowry, Ball, DeRozan, Dinwiddie and Schroeder. I think the Knicks can and will go over the cap this summer. They spent their money wisely and can afford to go over a bit especially if the contracts are as team friendly as they have been in the recent past. 


So we have up to 3 new draft picks though IMHO the Knicks stash one in Europe. 


The team could be:


Randle
RJ
Rose
Mitch
Noel
Obi
IQ
Luca
Burks
Pelle
Taj
Knox
Powell
and hopefully Pinson who I just love.

Plus at least 2 draft picks. Pretty deep team. 

[Deleted]

May 17, 2021 9:35:36 GMT -5 daglazer said:

May 17, 2021 7:01:02 GMT -5 @greatgates35 said:

Wonderful post. I do have a hard time believing they keep both Rose and Burks. But I have to take Jason's advice and enjoy one day at a time.

I don't know about that GG. Rose loves playing for Thibs and Burks finally got a chance to shine here. As long as we make fair contract offers, I think that they will re-sign. Noel might be tougher. After how well he has played, he might get a big time offer that will be hard to match.

I think all three will get offered multi year deals for over 10 mil a year. Not sure knicks can do that and maintain future cap space. 

[Deleted]

My question for speculation is what do you think Noel Burks Rose Bullock will be offered by other teams? I'd bet more than we think.

[trendsetta]

May 17, 2021 9:35:36 GMT -5 daglazer said:

May 17, 2021 7:01:02 GMT -5 @greatgates35 said:

Wonderful post. I do have a hard time believing they keep both Rose and Burks. But I have to take Jason's advice and enjoy one day at a time.

I don't know about that GG. Rose loves playing for Thibs and Burks finally got a chance to shine here. As long as we make fair contract offers, I think that they will re-sign. Noel might be tougher. After how well he has played, he might get a big time offer that will be hard to match.

I think this is a tough choice but I lean in your direction. You have to wonder what is going on with Robinson, since his iffiness is a factor. I wish there were a player in the draft that had similar attributes to Noel and Robinson. We're probably drafting 21-23rd. If you had a choice there what sort of player do you draft, and is it for talent or fit? Hard to upgrade at any position at that draft position. But Mitch's iffiness and Noel's contract.......