Way-too-early win loss prediction for 2020-2021

[trendsetta]

Just for kicks:

I am predicting 31 wins in a 72-game season for our beloved Knicks. For the prediction I used win shares only-- from last year-- and adjusted them twice, (1) in 2019/20 we played only 66 games out of the 72-73 that playoff teams were allowed to play and (2) for Coach making them better this year by a factor of 1.5 across the board, with the exception of Noel, whose win shares were for playing on a winning team with CP3 especially, who makes others better. Obviously Thibs will have a more positive impact on some players more than others. This improvement is, overall, a reasonable if not generous expectation. A generous if not dream-based fantasy prediction would be closer to 35 wins-- or just shy of .500 ball.

As you can see, Mitch is by far the most important player on this team, even when playing limited minutes. If he can get better at being a "perceived threat" on defense (a la Bill Russell) he should be able to stay on the floor for upwards of 30 minutes a game, which would be huge. I am giving Toppin the benefit of the doubt in that his offense will give more than his defense detracts. Worrisome is RJ Barrett-- Fizdale overplayed him early and I don't think the young man ever recovered-- but I have to think that Coach is going to help him elevate his game, especially on defense.

        2019/20      Thibs effect (x1.5)
Mitchell 7.5 ------> 11.25
Randle  3.0 ------> 4.5
Payton  1.9 ------> 3.0   rounding up
RJ      -.0.6 ------> 1.5  maybe?
Toppin  NA ------> 2.5
                            22.5 wins for the starters this coming season

Frank   1.0 ------>  1.5
Bullock .55 ------>  1.0  rounding up
Knox    .22 ------>  0.5  rounding up
Burks   1.3 ------>  2.0 
Noel     NA  ----->  3.0 rounded down to account he's playing on a much worse team
                             8.0 for the bench in a 72-game season

So just on this metric alone we can hope for 30-31 wins this coming season, which is about .390 winning percentage. The fact is that Mike Miller, for all the crap heaped on his head last year by some fans, Mike Miller himself coached at a .386 clip. A fan not only can hope but should expect that Thibs can exceed that clip since Miller was regarded by many fans not a "real" NBA coach, while Fizdale was. You know... 4-18 Fizdale? 

Why? Because the team has allegedly improved talent-wise with the work that Rose has done and because of Thibs' positive impact on the teams he has coached. So I can understand why some fans want to predict more than 30.5 wins. Underachieving would be 26 wins, overachieving would be anything between 31-35 wins.

Lastly, Las Vegas early odds have the Knicks winning 22.5 games which is basically saying that Thibs is only capable of improving the squad by a factor of only 1.25-1.33 and will be coach the team to a pathetic .316 winning percentage. WTaF?!? Not only that but, again, this falls well short of the job Mike Miller did last season. Weird.

Anybody want to weigh in with their own way-too-early predictions?

[garyd]

The preseason forecasts are about the 'shiny new toy' and so apt to favor the top teams and diminish the concept of growth in lower level teams. In fact as the top 3-4 'sure things' as to W-l is true, the others a crap shot to me.

Here's some elements that I see - a new coach will account for 30-40% improvement on a poor team. This year is previewed by how they finished the last year about 33% over the last half. And an estimated WAR (wins above replacement) from the prior year. In a 72 game season the answer could be as high as 32.

[trendsetta]

Nov 30, 2020 17:00:37 GMT -5 garyd said:

The preseason forecasts are about the 'shiny new toy' and so apt to favor the top teams and diminish the concept of growth in lower level teams. In fact as the top 3-4 'sure things' as to W-l is true, the others a crap shot to me.

Here's some elements that I see - a new coach will account for 30-40% improvement on a poor team. This year is previewed by how they finished the last year about 33% over the last half. And an estimated WAR (wins above replacement) from the prior year. In a 72 game season the answer could be as high as 32.

I like your take on things and how you arrived at that conclusion. I'm going to look more into WAR. What is your opinion on VORP as a stat? Similar? Dismissible? I admire the 30-40% improvement variable you posit. It makes total sense although I think it's a bit optimistic only because Toppin is a bit of a wildcard, Barrett concerns me a bit. More worrisome is that I am not a fan of Randle and I can easily foresee tensions there if he remains a Knick. I hope I am dead wrong, believe me. I see a guy who has peaked so if this is what he is then there are serious decisions to be made on so many levels. As I recall he was on the free agent scrap heap but being connected ultimately to the Porzingis transaction. Hard for me to root for a player who is connected to Mills, if not Dolan. Jury is still out on Rose. The poster Rx is already wondering about the cronyism-- or do they call it "networking"-- of Rose and his crew.

I've been droning on-- I'll take 32 wins which is .440 in a 72-game season but ideally I want around .500 team this year. Ideally if not outright miraculous.

[irish2u2]

Way too early for predictions. As I noted in another thread there have been a lot of acquisitions made in the last week or so that are at the least redundant and the most a little bewildering. But I have faith in Leon Rose who turned Ed Davis into 2 players, 3 second round draft choices and a Euro to be named later.   Rose has a plan and until the plan is revealed how can you predict ANYTHING about the Knicks in 2020-21?

My guess is Rose is stacking assets for a big trade. I won’t speculate who but in a league that treasures good 3 point shooters why sign 2 (Bullock and Burks) who are essentially the same player? I think the answer is one of those players is a trade chip. So might one of the 102 guards we now have competing for 1 starting job and 2 backup gigs. Aside from RJ who plays beside him? Who plays off the bench? Why sign Austin Rivers? 

Lots more questions than answers with this team but there are some things I do know. The Knicks will play better defense. Bet the ranch on it sports fans!!  I think the addition of Nerlens Noel and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is more than just a Kentucky thang. Both these guys and Frank Ntilikina are Tom Thibodeau type players. I don’t think Noel or MKG are trade fodder. Frank might be though I suspect once Thibs sees what Frank can do on defense he will find a role for him. 

I do think Randle will be traded (but contrary to an opinion stated here he is an extremely popular guy amongst his teammates) but if he isn’t he too will profit for the new administration. Randle will not be the hub of the offense which was the nexus of his struggles last year even though he led the team in pointers, rebounds and assists. The Knicks offense was a major issue last season and trying to run it through Randle showed just how profound the problem was though to be fair a healthy Elfrid Payton did run the team much better.

I expect some improvement from RJ and Mitch. I expect Obi Toppin to make an instant impact. Kevin Knox is still a huge question mark but the main problem with the Knicks is PG. So who is the PG? It could be Rose goes big and pulls the trigger on a Westbrook or Wall trade. I’m not in favor of either deal. So who else is out there?

Time will tell. The off season reports are that Smith is playing much better. Nothing slows a young player more than inconsistent minutes and an undefined role. Smith has the most physical talent of any guard on the team. Has the skill set caught up? Answer that question and guessing the Knicks win total becomes easier. DSJ is playing for a contract but then again so is everybody else.

And what about Rivers? He’s a combo guard who has run teams before. Good teams. What’s his role with the Knicks? I can’t imagine that Rivers signed with the Knicks to be a backup and he isn’t supplanting RJ so does that mean he thinks he can be the lead guard? Certainly he’s a better offensive option as far as scoring and he’s an underrated defender. Can he create for his teammates?

Another question to be answered before I venture a guess that historically has been epically wrong. Just like me calling Trae Young “overrated”. 

Now here’s the kicker. I hope the Knicks grow as players (they average slightly over 24 years old) but I want another lottery shot in the 2021 draft. That would be a draft with up to 10 blue chip players including wunderkind Cade Cunningham from Oklahoma State. Who just happens to be a PG.

As far as I am concerned a year spent developing young players and their roles, implementing Thibs defense and being smart about the cap and trades makes the won/loss record immaterial to me. 

Three years. Then I will guess their record. 

[Deleted]

30 or 31 wins

[irish2u2]

All right, all right!!! Y’all forced my hand!!! It just so happens ESPN did an article predicting the won/loss records of all 30 NBA teams. They have the Knicks at 24.7 wins with a 2% chance to make the playoffs. That’s my guess. After all ESPN knows everything, right?😎😎😎

[garyd]

Bill I know you are kidding on ESPN. Out here in the west we call it the Eastern Sports Promotion Network. They know nothing about Sports west of the Mississippi, LOL.

Out here the talk is that The Lakers have 3 spots open and the Clippers boss who owns the world along with Bill Gates is ready to go after 2 big FAs.

[Deleted]

Dec 1, 2020 11:43:31 GMT -5 garyd said:

Bill I know you are kidding on ESPN. Out here in the west we call it the Eastern Sports Promotion Network. They know nothing about Sports west of the Mississippi, LOL.

Out here the talk is that The Lakers have 3 spots open and the Clippers boss who owns the world along with Bill Gates is ready to go after 2 big FAs.

😅. And that is ESPIN pay no attention to the west 😂. Just kidding.

[daglazer]

This looks to be a team that wins about 40% of its games unless Mitch and RJ take some leaps up. So, I will go with 29 wins.

[Deleted]

Dec 1, 2020 13:22:00 GMT -5 daglazer said:

This looks to be a team that wins about 40% of its games unless Mitch and RJ take some leaps up. So, I will go with 29 wins.

I do expect that duo to take leaps, especially RJ. That said most of the east non playoff teams got better. 29 is a very good number.

[axios]

Ill take 31 but I'd like 19, with 72 games decided by 3 points, just to get more lottery balls.

[jbnewyork162]

Dec 3, 2020 9:35:17 GMT -5 axios said:

Ill take 31 but I'd like 19, with 72 games decided by 3 points, just to get more lottery balls.

Axios I guarantee you if we have the 1st or 2nd pick or close to that again no one is going to want to come here next summer. These kids need to know what fighting for the 8th seed and above looks like. RJ and Mitch and Obi are not losers. If we end up that low again it would mean NONE of our young people are any good. NONE

[axios]

I was being partly sarcastic, or TIC with that post. I believe Thibs, gets us more wins, just bc he is Thibs. I also believe, RJ, Mitchell, will be improved. When Payton got back last year, he was a huge reason for us being competitive after that 4-24 start? Having Obi will help, having Randle not dribbling for 23 seconds will help, not having to watch Portis will help. Let's see where Frank and Knox are ?
So i think we will be a better prepared team, improving. Hoping, like the NY Giants, 4-7 but liking what I see for the future.

72 point losses by less than 3, was almost 72 wins by 3, so I was just hoping for enough good things happening but getting that one last key piece from the draft bc the year after I believe we will be fighting for the 6-7th seed no problem.

[ReneNYG1]

I think we are going to play more games in our division so it's going to be hard,I say 26 wins hoping for 36.